What a difference a month makes. My most recent column juxtaposes the political lay of the land as Republicans departed their Milwaukee convention on July 18th with the situation now as Democrats convene down the lakefront in Chicago.
Then, Republicans were riding high. Their convention had been largely smooth and successful. Former President Trump was a conquering figure on the heels of the assassination attempt on his life. The iconic image of him with defiant fist in the air seemed destined to define the year. Joe Biden was a figure in decline, having failed the test of the initial debate at the end of June and spending his hours fighting off a steady drumbeat of calls for him to exit the race.
Fast forward just four and a half weeks. Biden is sidelined as a lame-duck president. Kamala Harris has picked up the torch. Her initial weeks have been close to flawless. Her veep pick went a bit against conventional expectations and has been far better received
than was Trump’s selection of JD Vance who seems more adept at shoveling an ever-deeper hole than at extraction. Harris is occupying rent-free space deep inside Trump’s head. Trump had the contrast with Biden figured out (not hard to do), but hasn’t come to grips with how to frame the match-up with Harris. He has mostly stayed off the campaign trail to feed his ever-ample grievances. When at rallies, he is far off his game and in open warfare with his own advisers. He evidently thinks that feeding a never-ending supply of red meat to his devoted base will get him over the finish line. None of it is working.
All that said…and the race is still essentially tied, if perhaps breaking ever so slightly in Harris’s favor. Though compared with where Democrats were just those few weeks back, they will take it.
The problem, among others, for Democrats is that this has been the storyline of the past four weeks. There are still 11 weeks to go before Election Day. That is more than enough time for a number of further plot twists and turns. Not all of them may cut to the Democrats’ advantage.
